2006-08-29

A próxima guerra do Mundo

O século XX foi o mais sangrento da história. Apesar da confortável presunção de que o século XXI vai ser mais pacífico, os mesmos ingredientes que proporcionaram cem anos tão destrutivos estão latentes na actualidade. Em concreto, um conflito no Médio Oriente pode muito bem despoletar uma nova conflagração global. Os Estados Unidos são a única potência que a pode evitar, mas a questão que se coloca é se estão interessados nisso.
Esta é, em resumo, a estimulante proposta de reflexão do professor de Harvard Niall Fergusson, na edição Setembro/Outubro da Foreign Affairs, que pode ser visitada na seguinte ligação: The Next War of the World Preview

2006-08-27

Petróleo: Rússia ultrapassa Arábia Saudita

Dados oficiais da OPEP, citados pelo Finantial Times A Rússia está actualmente a extrair mais petróleo do que a Arábia Saudita, o que a converte na maior produtora do 'ouro negro' no mundo. Pelas estatísticas da Organização dos Países Exportadores de Petróleo, desde 2002 as companhias russas ultrapassaram as sauditas como as maiores produtoras de petróleo. No primeiro semestre deste ano, por exemplo, a produção russa aumentou para as 235,8 milhões de toneladas, com um incremento de 2,3% na base anual. É comum associar a Arábia Saudita como a principal fonte de petróleo do mundo, seguida pela Rússia. Nos últimos anos, porém, Moscovo renacionalizou e modernizou muitas das suas indústrias do sector, o que parece estar a pagar dividendos. Alguns especialistas concordam com a ideia de que Riade não está a extrair crude na sua plena capacidade, o que permite aos sauditas ampliar a produção em momentos específicos. Outros argumentam que a Arábia Saudita já está a produzir no seu limite e tem manipulado artificialmente os dados das suas reservas. Quanto à Rússia, muitos profissionais da indústria petrolífera acreditam que o país produz já praticamente o seu tecto de capacidade, o que alimenta a perspectiva de que a produção nacional de crude poderá crescer apenas por volta de 2% até 2009.

2006-08-21

Paridade

A Lei da Paridade, que obriga à inclusão de um terço de mulheres nas listas candidatas às eleições, foi publicada, esta segunda-feira, em Diário da República.
A lei da Paridade, que deverá ser reavaliada em 2011, teve a sua primeira versão vetada, a 2 de Junho, pelo Presidente da República, Aníbal Cavaco Silva, que considerou excessiva as sanções que o decreto previa para todos os partidos que não cumprissem as quotas.
Já publicada, a Lei da Paridade terá como primeiro teste as eleições europeias, legislativas e autárquicas de 2009, sendo que, «decorridos cinco anos sobre a entrada em vigor da lei, a Assembleia da República avalia o seu impacte na promoção da paridade entre homens e mulheres e procede à sua revisão com base nessa avaliação», refere o texto do diploma.

Lápis Azul nos Estados Unidos

São 25 as histórias que o Project Censored lista como principais notícias censuradas em 2006, mostrando as matérias que não chegaram a ser publicadas e documentando os seus relatos. A publicação da lista anual é um dos principais momentos desta organização de investigação na área dos média.
No site é possível ainda ver a lista de histórias que foram censuradas noutros anos, quer por não terem sido publicadas quer por terem sido mal investigadas ou relegadas para espaços menores do que realmente mereciam. A organização Project Censored já existe há 30 anos e tem um âmbito muito limitado à realidade norte-americana.

2006-08-18

Islamic Fascists?

Artigo publicado por David Ignatius no dia 18 de Agosto de 2006 no Washington Post, em que se discute as fragilidades da classificação atribuída por Bush aos inimigos dos Estados Unidos e da liberdade.

"This nation is at war with Islamic fascists who will use any means to destroy those of us who love freedom," President Bush said last week after Britain announced it had foiled a plot to blow up airliners over the Atlantic. I have been pondering since then his description of the enemy. What are "Islamic fascists," and does this phrase make sense in describing America's adversaries?
The judicious columnist's answer is, of course, yes and no. A look at the history of fascism produces some startling parallels to the revolutionary movements that have swept Iran and other Muslim countries over the past several decades. But the phrase is misleading, both in its broad reference to Islam and in its evocation of another century and another war.
One of the old college textbooks gathering dust in my basement is Ernst Nolte's "Three Faces of Fascism," a classic study of the social forces that created fascist movements in France, Italy and Germany during the 1920s and '30s. It's a dense book, but it concludes with one unforgettable insight. Fascism, Nolte said, is "resistance to transcendence." By that, he meant that fascism was a rebellion against the liberating but destabilizing transformations of modern society.
In the countries where it took root, fascism began as a middle-class assault on the liberal elites who were creating that era's version of globalization. Jews were a special target, but they were also symbols of a larger internationalist movement. In one passage, Nolte described the focus of fascist protest in language that might apply to today's globalized world: "The leading class performs its task of establishing the technical and economic unity of the world, and emancipating all men for participation in this undertaking, in ever new political and intellectual compromises with the hitherto ruling powers: It is the society of synthesis."
The fascist revolt against "transcendence" was driven in part by rage against the perceived corruption of the European elites, who were thought to have grown rich during the booming, inflationary years of the 1920s at the expense of the hardworking middle class. The final malign motivation in Germany was shame and indignation over the nation's defeat in World War I. Fascism gave ordinary people an explanation of what had gone wrong in their lives -- and someone to blame.
I do see many of these same factors in the growing popularity of radical Islam in the Middle East. The baseline for this movement remains the Iranian revolution of 1979, which exploded in the region's most modern and, if you will, "transcendent" state. The shah's Iran was rushing to embrace the global economy. Its elite was liberal, secular, international -- and also wretchedly corrupt. Ordinary Muslims felt, with some justice, that they were being left out of the spoils of this new Iran -- that their hard work was being used to buy mansions on the Cote d'Azur. That radical populism lives on in President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, dressed in his ostentatiously humble golf jacket.
I remember how that revolutionary indignation swept the Middle East in the early 1980s, when I first began covering the region. The most popular preacher in Cairo in 1981 was Sheik Kishk, who would ridicule the corruption and Western ways of Egyptian President Anwar Sadat and his family. That same year, Sadat was murdered by Muslim terrorists.
Today's Muslim radicals, like the Nazis in Germany, gain support by promising dignity for a people who feel shamed by defeat in war. That's the appeal of Hezbollah's leader, Hasan Nasrallah: The Arabs feel they have suffered 40 years of military humiliation from Israel. Nasrallah offers the tonic of defiance and, for the moment at least, a sort of victory. That makes him a hero, even though he brought on the ruination of Lebanon.
Back to President Bush and his "Islamic fascists." In many ways, this phrase does capture the rage that fuels America's enemies. What is most pernicious about the movement is that, as with European fascism, it has made Jews the symbol for larger forces that confound angry Muslims. This is perverse: The corrupt elites who obstruct Iranians, Egyptians, Syrians and Saudis today are their own rulers and their legions of fixers and bagmen, not Israeli Jews.
Yet I balk at the term. The notion that we are fighting "Islamic fascists" blurs the conflict, widening the enemy to many if not all Muslims. It's as if we were to call Hitler and Mussolini "Christian fascists", implying that it is their religion, not resistance to transcendence, that is the root cause of the problem. The revolution that began in Iran in 1979 must be contained so that it doesn't destabilize the region more than it already has. But it will only be broken from within, by people who are at last ready to transcend.

2006-08-16

O Blog de Ahmadinejad

O Presidente do Irão já tem um Blog: http://www.ahmadinejad.ir com tradução para inglês, francês e árabe.

No primeiro post publicado, o polémico e ultra-conservador presidente iraniano revela as suas memórias do conflito Irão-Iraque que marcou a sua humilde juventude.

A criação deste blog está a ser vista como um hábil golpe publicitário que tem como destinatário óbvio a opinião pública internacional e a limpeza da imagem de um regime radical e extremista desgastado pela crise do urânio enriquecido e pelo apoio ao terrorismo internacional.

Have a nice flight

A interpretação de Pat Oliphant sobre as medidas de segurança anti-terroristas adoptadas pelas autoridades britânicas. Publicado no Washington Post de 15 de Agosto de 2006.

2006-08-11

The threat endures

WITH NEARLY five years having passed without a repetition of Sept. 11, the threat of terrorism had come to seem to many as more theoretical than real. Yesterday's news changed that in a hurry.
British officials announced that they had foiled a plot to cause "mass murder on an unimaginable scale." Terrorists planned to blow up a large number of airliners flying from Britain to the United States. It was, said Michael Chertoff, U.S. secretary of homeland security, "a plot that is certainly about as sophisticated as any we've seen in recent years."
The first conclusion, as we've learned during the past five years, is that you have to be careful in drawing conclusions. In the past, U.S. officials have breathlessly announced the disruption of terrorist designs that proved, in subsequent days, less formed or horrific than claimed. In other cases, it has taken time to uncover whether, for example, plots are homegrown or hatched from abroad. FBI Director Robert S. Mueller III said that the latest conspiracy "had the earmarks of an al-Qaeda plot," but all officials stressed that their investigation was continuing.
But if the inquiry fills out the outline provided yesterday, it will serve, first, as a chilling reminder of how many people remain committed to murdering innocent civilians; and, second, as a reassuring reminder of the solid police work (in this case, in Britain) unseen by most of us. There will continue to be legitimate questions about the workings and organization of homeland security departments here and abroad and about whether vast sums appropriated since 2001 have been spent wisely. But the emergence of one terrorist plot from the shadows should bring to mind the many men and women in the United States and elsewhere working every day with determination, and usually without credit, to block such plots.
There has been a lot of discussion about insufficient resources devoted to the protection of ports, railways or chemical plants. Those other potential targets may indeed need more attention. But airliners remain a high-profile and therefore attractive target for terrorists.
It's inevitable that politicians will weave this latest development into campaign narratives. Critics of the administration will say it proves that President Bush and his wars have not made the nation safer and that more effort has to be made to reduce the alienation of Muslims in Europe and elsewhere. Bush partisans will say it proves the need for his aggressive approach. "This is a war Islamic fascists started -- and it is a war they intend to prosecute to the end," White House official Peter H. Wehner wrote in an e-mail yesterday. "In the face of that, 'Come Home, America' is not a sufficient response. Retreating from Iraq and 'redeploying' to Okinawa is not a sufficient response. Criticizing the surveillance of terrorists' calls into and out of America is not a sufficient response. And weakening the Patriot Act is not a sufficient response."
In our view, point-scoring from either side isn't very useful. Over the past couple of years, as the threat seemed to recede, maybe it seemed okay to shape positions on terrorism based on polling results and electoral prospects. Now, we're reminded, that isn't acceptable, and neither are the stale and unproductive either-or arguments the nation gradually slid into. We have to conduct intensive police investigations and protect civil liberties; protect the ports and take the fight to the enemy and reach out to broader Muslim communities. And we need to understand that no approach is going to make the nation absolutely safe anytime soon.
Americans seem to understand that, if the patience shown at airports yesterday is any indication. New security rules imposed considerable inconvenience, which may persist. But yesterday's news also was a reminder that inconvenience is a lot preferable to the alternative.
Editorial do Washington Post, 11 de Agosto de 2006.

2006-08-04

Destruição em Beirute

http://www.nytimes.com/packages/html/world/20060804_MIDEAST_GRAPHIC/

A infografia interactiva mostra os efeitos dos bombardeamentos israelitas sobre a área de Beirute onde estavam sedeados os principais departamentos do Hezbollah, no período entre 12 e 31 de Julho.

Old Cold War relics

Ben Sargent, Washington Post, 2 de Agosto de 2006

2006-08-02

O Outono do Patriarca

O anúncio da transferência de poderes em Cuba, proclamada pelo punho e letra de Fidel Castro, imediatamente antes da intervenção cirúrgica a que foi submetido, iniciou de uma forma iniludível a transição para o pós-castrismo, sem que ninguém possa, de uma forma séria e credível, prever como o processo vai terminar.
O Outono do patriarca, para usar uma figura de estilo emprestada por Gabriel Garcia Marquez, é apenas a etapa que precede o seu ocaso definitivo e a abertura de um novo caminho político para Cuba que, esperamos sinceramente, sob a égide da reconciliação entre os cubanos do interior e do exterior, conduza a ilha à democracia plena.
Pela primeira vez em 47 anos, Fidel delega o poder e fá-lo, de forma sintomática, no próprio irmão, Raul, de 75 anos. Esta é a expressão mais eloquente da incapacidade do regime em se renovar e reinventar. Um regime anacrónico que só sobreviveu ao colapso comunista do início da década de 90, através das coesão mantida face ao embargo decretado pelos Estados Unidos, à repressão impiedosa da oposição interna e ao surgimento de populismos oportunistas que correram a aliar-se ao líder histórico da Revolução Cubana.
Para lá das especulações e movimentações nos corredores do poder uma coisa é certa: Não há castrismo sem Castro. Agora, é tempo de os Estados Unidos não descurarem o “quintal” e precaverem-se de avalanchas migratórias, cumprindo, com eficácia, a sua tarefa primordial: acalmar os ânimos sempre ferventes da comunidade cubana de Miami.

Beginning of the End in Cuba

Publica-se abaixo o editorial do New York Times de 2 de Agosto de 2006. A expectativa paira sobre a ilha sem o líder Fidel. A tansferência de poder para Raúl Castro poderá significar o princípio do fim da ditadura cubana?

Cuba is preparing, Miami is celebrating, and Washington is dusting off its plans. News from Havana speaks only of a temporary transfer of power to 75-year-old Raúl Castro while his 79-year-old brother, Fidel, recuperates from gastrointestinal surgery. But a historic passage of power has plainly begun.
America’s overriding interest is in a peaceful transition to the democratic and economically dynamic society that Cubans have dreamed of for decades. Given Cuba’s educated population, the energy and skills of its people, and its advantageous location, that is not at all a utopian fantasy. But it may not happen immediately. Washington should be planning to establish contacts with Fidel and Raúl Castro’s successors even if they have roots in the dictatorship, and attempt to play the most constructive role it can in the island’s evolution. An early easing of the economic embargo could strengthen Cuba’s battered middle class and help it play a more active role in the coming political transition.
The United States needs to plan now to deal with possible huge flows of temporary refugees if government control in Havana should become destabilized. It should prepare for extending special temporary refugee status for those fleeing political uncertainty. And it must certainly discourage Cuban-Americans from prematurely rushing home to claim property or political office.
All this preparation could be complicated by the backward-looking fantasies of some politically active members of Miami’s Cuban-American community. The refugees are certainly entitled to their say, and they will be bound to get a hearing, given their role as swing votes in a swing state that also happens to be governed by the president’s brother. But the challenge for the Bush administration will be to make sure other voices are heard and heeded as well. Washington’s post-Castro policy must not be become a pawn of Miami refugee politics.
Ten successive American presidents have proclaimed their fervent desire for a Cuba without Fidel Castro. If he can transcend the ideological fixations of the exile community, President Bush could become the first of them with a real chance to help Cubans build a better, post-Castro future.

2006-08-01

Índia na Foreign Affairs

Em tempos socialista e não alinhada, a Índia refaz-se, numa história de sucesso do capitalismo e como parceiro estratégico dos Estados Unidos.
As reformas económicas proporcionaram um forte impulso ao PIB per capita, reduzindo drasticamente os índices de pobreza. Estes dois factores, aliados à crescente auto-confiança indiana podem trazer-lhe o papel de fiel da balança, do equilíbrio de poder mundial.
A problemática e implicações da ascenção da Índia aos grandes palcos do poder internacional é analisada em detalhe na edição de Julho/Agosto da Foreign Affairs, com particular destaque para os ensaios de Raja Mohan, India and the Balance of Power, e de Gurcharan Das, The India Model.
Mohan reflecte acerca das ondas de choque provocadas pela reentrada da Índia no sistema internacional, com particular destaque para os Estados Unidos e a China.
Gurcharan aborda os desafios de modernização com que se confronta a sociedade indiana, face às rupturas latentes provocadas por um crescimento económico sem precedentes.